00000caa a22000003a 4500 UP-8027390931312424494 Buklod 20140905103057.0 o--- | || || ta 140905s xx d r |||| u| (iLib)UPCEB-00008419443 emz eng Helzer, Erik G. Why and when peer prediction is superior to self-prediction the weight given to future aspiration versus past achievement. [article]. pp. 38-53 Peer predictions of future behavior and achievement are often more accurate than those furnished by the self. Although both self- and peer predictions correlate equally with future outcomes, peers tend to avoid the degree of overoptimism so often seen in self-predictions. In 3 studies, the authors tested whether this differential accuracy arises because people give more weight to to past behavior when predicting others, but emphasize agentic information, in particular data about their aspiration level, when predicting the self. Studies 1 and 3 shoed that the exact same participants rated past behavior more diagnostic of future performance when predicting another person but viewed aspiration-level data as more valuable when someone else was trying to predict them. In Studies 2 and 3 predicting an upcoming exam score an d performance in a lab task, respectively), participants gave greater weight in self-predictions to aspiration-level data than did a yoked peed, who instead gave greater weight to evidence of past achievement. This differential weighting explained why peer predictions tended to be less optimistic and,thus, more accurate. Discussion centers on strategies for predicting future behavior and why people may remain ignorant of their own incompetence despite feedback. - (from the authors) Dunning, David. Self-prediction. Social prediction. Optimism. Self-enhancement. Accuracy. Journal of personality and social psychology vol.103, 2012. Analytics