00000namaa22000003a 4500 UP-8027295163992910164 Buklod 20241001151404.0 t r |||| u| ta 241001s2024 xx r |||| u|eng UPVT-00020032564 UPTC rda eng LG 995 2024 E5 C35 Caimbre, Katherine Joy D. author. Super typhoon Rai (Odette) track forecasting and democratizing risk communication Caimbre, Katherine Joy D.; Eulito V. Casas, adviser. 2024. xviii, 187 pages illustrations. text rdacontent unmediated rdamedia volume rdacarrier Master's thesis (M.S. E.S.) -- University of the Philippines, Tacloban. The Philippines faces an annual average of 6 to 9 typhoons, underscoring the imperative of timely and accurate tropical cyclone forecasts to promote early public awareness and preparedness. Leveraging a high- resolution approach with a grid size of 2.5km, the Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulator (CRESS) employs the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) to analyze the dynamics of Super Typhoon Rai (2021). The forecasted track and intensity of Super Typhoon Rai generated by CRESS serve as foundational elements for a relational model aimed at democratizing risk communication practices. Examination of the hindcasts for Super Typhoon Rai unveils notable enhancements in pre-landfall track and intensity, particularly evident at 0060 UTC on December 14 (118.2 knots) and 1800 UTC on December 13 (117.4 knots). Additionally, the findings underscore the efficacy of narrative-based communication designs in fostering evacuation intent, self-relevance, trust, clarity, and perceived authority of the communication source. Furthermore, the study investigates the factors contributing to the disregard of evacuation warnings by individuals. Rooted in contemporary research on evacuation behavior and emergency preparedness for extreme hazard events, the relational model advocated in this study aligns with broader initiatives aimed at democratizing risk communication and empowering individuals to take proactive measures in response to such occurrences. Casas, Eulito V. adviser. Thesis FI UP UPTAC UPTAC LG 995 2024 E5 C35 Thesis