00000cab a22000004cb4500 IPP-00000029361 IPP 20140226155313.0 140226s2011 xx d | ||r |||||eng|| eng Mapa, Dennis S. Food inflation, underemployment and hunger incidence A Vector autoregressive analysis 2011 The high level of hunger incidence in the country is perhaps one of the most pressing issues that need to be addressed by our policymakers. Official government statistics and data from self-rated hunger surveys show an increasing trend in hunger incidence among Filipino households. Data from the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) show that the percentage of Filipinos experiencing hunger almost remained the same, decreasing only slightly from 11.1 percent in 2003 to 10.8 percent in 2009. The Social Weather Stations (SWS) quarterly surveys on hunger incidence also show an increasing trend in the percentage of families that experienced hunger, reaching an alarming level of 24 percent in December 2009, representing 4.4 million households. One probable cause of the increasing trend in hunger is the rising of food prices akin to what the country experienced in 2008. This paper aims to determine the impact of food inflation and underemployment on hunger incidence in the Philippines, using the hunger incidence data from the SWS. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model is used to determine the effect of a shock or increase to food inflation and underemployment on total involuntary hunger. Results show that an increase in food prices at the current quarter will increase hunger incidence for five quarters. Shocks to underemployment will also increase hunger incidence but the effects last for two quarters. The results of this study provide relevant information that will be useful in crafting policies related to the Hunger Mitigation Program of the government. Food Inflation Hunger Incidence Han, Fatima C. Estrada, Kristine Claire O. Philippine Statistician Vol. 60 (2011), 43-62 UPD DSTC Article FI